Skubal or Bust? Why the Mets' Rotation Rebuild Starts With the Winter's Biggest Free Agent

Every Mets fan knows the feeling of staring at a 74-88 finish and a last-place seat in the NL East. The good news is that David Stearns has already told us what the winter is about: the rotation is getting rebuilt. The question hanging over Queens is whether that rebuild begins with the one name everybody keeps typing into the search bar, Tarik Skubal.

Here is the situation. Skubal is a two-time AL Cy Young winner heading into free agency, and the Dodgers picked him up at the trade deadline, which means they cannot attach a qualifying offer to him. That matters, because it means any team that signs him keeps its draft pick. He turns 30 in November, had his elbow scoped back in May, and is represented by Scott Boras. The reported goal from that camp is the largest pitching contract ever, a mark currently held by Yoshinobu Yamamoto at 12 years and $325 million.

Now look at what the Mets are working with. Freddy Peralta was shipped to Tampa Bay at the deadline, which left Nolan McLean as the top arm on the staff. McLean is a real building block, and Christian Scott, Zac Thornton and Jonah Tong give the organization young depth. But depth is not an ace. Stearns said this fall that he will add to the rotation and would not say whether that means a true front-line starter. Read that however you like, but a front office that was not interested in a Skubal-sized swing would probably not leave the door open this wide.

The timing angle is the part I find most interesting. There is talk of a possible work stoppage down the road, and Boras has reportedly hinted that his client could sign early to lock in a deal before any new economic rules arrive. A fast market rewards the team with the deepest pockets and the quickest trigger, and that describes Steve Cohen's club better than almost anyone. If the bidding opens in a hurry, the Mets cannot afford to be the team still thinking it over.

The money picture also leans our way. Reports peg roughly $57 million coming off the books after 2027 between Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga and Jorge Polanco, and Bo Bichette could open more room if he opts out of his last year. Projections for Skubal have floated numbers around $45 million a year over five or six seasons, but those are guesses, not reported offers, so treat them with salt.

My fan take: go get him, but go in with eyes open. A pitcher who just had a scope in May and is about to turn 30 is a big risk on a deal that could stretch into his mid-thirties. The Mets have been burned before by paying for a name instead of a plan. Still, the lineup has Lindor and Soto at the top of the order and a young outfield group of Soto, A.J. Ewing and Carson Benge, so the missing piece is clearly pitching, and this is the rare free agent who changes the whole shape of a rotation. Pairing Skubal with McLean would give Queens a top of the staff that every contender would hate to face.

What I'll be watching next: how quickly the Boras market moves once the World Series ends, whether Stearns also chases a second starter so the season does not hinge on one arm, and whether first base and the right side of the infield, which Stearns admitted must improve, get fixed in the same burst of activity. If the Mets want to turn a 74-88 season into a playoff chase in 2027, this winter is where they have to act, and the first domino is the one wearing Dodger blue right now.